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4

Thepassingcyclone

6yo Gelding · 11-2

Fontwell · Finbarr OSullivan 21st Carpe Diem Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed some ability amidst greenness on first of 2 starts in bumpers and showed a bit more 4 months on from an unpromising hurdles debut here when fifth in a Worcester maiden (2m) 23 days ago. However, low-grade handicaps promise to be more his bag moving forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 27/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m16y Sft 15627/0145 @ Exeter 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 2m161y Hvy 15620/0254 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m Gd 15810/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester45th5th0
2026-05-24Fontwell40
2026-02-20Exeter56th7th−1
2026-01-27Chepstow45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0120/0210/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +22.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/01/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
20/02/20266th40/10%0%0.00
10/09/20265th80/10%64%+0.64