8
Pepper Fizz
3yo Filly · 10-7
Fontwell · Nick Peacock Eighty Shades Of Grey Birthday Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 12th | 14th | −2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Windsor | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 85/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 28/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |