5
Sapphire Dream
3yo Gelding · 11-0
Fontwell · Nick Peacock Eighty Shades Of Grey Birthday Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 162y
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength34%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-01-30 | Dundalk | BHA44 | 8th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Dundalk | BHA44 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Dundalk | BHA47 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 7-8 · tight 85/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 19/11/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 46% | -0.20 |
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 13/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 46% | -0.28 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |