5
A Little Something
7yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 105
Fontwell · Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 104y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-06-10 | Fontwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Stratford | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fontwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2024 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/01/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 20/02/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 06/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 07/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |