American Land
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 109
Fontwell · Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 104y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fontwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-24 | Chepstow | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-06-04 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/12/2024 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 29% | -0.66 |
| 23/04/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |