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8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 112
Fontwell · Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 104y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 6 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Kempton | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-15 | Wincanton | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-26 | Kempton | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Newbury | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2025-02-08 | Newbury | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2024-12-26 | Kempton | 3 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2023 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/12/2023 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 26/12/2023 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 06/02/2024 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 09/03/2024 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 31/03/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/04/2024 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/11/2024 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |