4
Midnight Jewel
10yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 106
Fontwell · Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 104y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Stratford | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-07 | Huntingdon | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-22 | Fontwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/07/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |