1
Move With The Beat
7yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 117
Fontwell · Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 104y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Warwick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wincanton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Taunton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Ludlow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Taunton | 4 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2024 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/03/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/04/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |