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5

Begin The Luck

10yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 96

Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 small-field chases last season. Found less than looked likely in a similar event at Plumpton in late May. Hard to be confident he can capitalise on lower hurdle mark following an underwhelming return to this sphere at Newton Abbot 15 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 19/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 96 · 2m4f Sft 164 · below its mark19/01/2026 · OR 96 par19/015OR 965 @ Sedgefield 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 2m3f65y Goo 166 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Wincanton 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m7f149y Hvy 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 95 par14/024OR 955 @ Leicester 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 2m4f25y Goo 168 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Newton Abbot 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 99 · 2m4f216y Goo 168 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 99 par4/045OR 995 @ Plumpton 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 98 · 2m3f166y Gd 161 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Fontwell 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 2m3f104y Gd 167 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 104 par6/055OR 1044 @ Plumpton 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 105 · 2m3f166y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 105 par5 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 99 · 2m167y Gd 162 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 99 par18/095OR 99projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton Abbot58th8th0
2026-05-26Plumpton43rd2nd+1
2026-05-06Fontwell52nd2nd0
2026-04-19Plumpton51st1st0
2026-04-04Newton Abbot55th5th0
2026-03-06Leicester51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/016/036/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength3%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/01/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22
04/02/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
14/02/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
06/03/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
04/04/20265th85/4089%20%-0.69
19/04/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
06/05/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
26/05/20263rd10/382%33%-0.49
18/09/20268th40/10%30%+0.30