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2

Birthday Angel

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 99

Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

65%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth-travelling type who rattled off a quickfire double at Plumpton/Wincanton in November. Creditable 13¾-length fifth in a better race at Wincanton latest hurdle start and returned in good form on the Flat recently. Reverts to hurdling and makes appeal back down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 04/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 55 par4/096OR 556 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m2f Std 134 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Brighton 07/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 52 · 1m1f207y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 52 par7/106OR 526 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 52 · 1m1f207y Goo 132 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 52 par5 @ Plumpton 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m7f195y Goo 151 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 88 par17/115OR 885 @ Wincanton 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m7f50y Gd 166 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 88 par4 @ Wincanton 16/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 101 · 1m7f50y Sft 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 101 par16/124OR 1015 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m2f Sft 117 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m2f219y Sta 140 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 60 par9/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton64th5th−1
2026-06-06Lingfield52nd2nd0
2025-12-16Wincanton45th4th+1
2025-11-20Wincanton51st1st0
2025-11-17Plumpton51st1st0
2025-10-16Brighton62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0916/1016/129/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20254th7/282%63%-0.19
23/09/20255th7/282%67%-0.15
07/10/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
16/10/20252nd5/287%92%+0.05
17/11/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
20/11/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
16/12/20255th10/147%67%+0.19
06/06/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
09/09/20264th9/276%73%-0.04