Black Dakota
7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 95
Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stratford | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |