IvyArcIvyArc
6

Crown Of India

5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 95

Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Only denied a third Worcester success by a handicap debutant in June. Bumped into one with a solid course record at Market Rasen subsequently. Latest 8¾ lengths sixth at Worcester has proved strong form for the grade and he could well resume winning ways with fitness on his side.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 25/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 97 · 2m Goo 153 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 97 par25/064OR 974 @ Uttoxeter 16/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m7f168y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2025 · OR 105 par4 @ Ludlow 08/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 100 · 1m7f169y GF 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 100 par8/104OR 1005 @ Wincanton 20/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 97 · 1m7f50y Gd 168 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 97 par5 @ Uttoxeter 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 93 · 1m7f168y Gd 161 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 93 par2/055OR 934 @ Worcester 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 2m Gd 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 89 par5 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 93 · 2m Gd 161 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 93 par17/065OR 934 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 94 · 2m125y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 96 · 2m Gd 162 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 96 par23/085OR 96projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Worcester56th6th0
2026-07-05Market Rasen42nd1st+1
2026-06-17Worcester52nd2nd0
2026-05-28Worcester41st0th+1
2026-05-02Uttoxeter59th9th0
2025-11-20Wincanton56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0620/1117/0623/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
16/07/20257th16/116%14%-0.02
08/10/20255th14/126%20%-0.06
20/11/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
02/05/20269th20/10%47%+0.47
28/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
17/06/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
05/07/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
23/08/20266th5/174%58%-0.15