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Devon Red

7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 97

Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden from capable stable. Creditable form with 3 in-frame finishes at Newton Abbot. Looked outclassed in terms of looks/ability when down the field in a valuable novice final at Worcester. Blinkers retained on return to calmer waters but drop back in trip isn't certain to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS22/0744 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS22/0845 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 2m5f122y Gd 166 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 88 par7/095OR 884 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 2m5f122y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 87 par18/094OR 872 @ Worcester 25/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 87 · 2m4f Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 87 par25/092OR 87projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Worcester29th5th+3
2026-09-18Newton Abbot42nd1st+1
2026-09-07Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-08-22Newton Abbot42nd1st+1
2026-07-22Worcester44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0722/087/0918/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 28/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20264th66/10%63%+0.63
22/08/20262nd11/271%67%-0.04
07/09/20264th10/382%57%-0.25
18/09/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28
25/09/20269th14/126%43%+0.17