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8

Diamond Egg

8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 92

Fontwell · KSR Lighting, The Ultimate Lighting Solutions Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 162y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair bumper/maiden hurdle winner in 2022/3. Proved he retains ability when smooth-travelling second in a Fakenham selling handicap on final start for Henrietta Knight last February. Interesting returning for shrewd yard in new headgear combo, especially if backed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Cheltenham 01/01/2022 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 1m5f209y Sft 152 · HIGHER CLASS1/0115 @ Kempton 19/03/2022 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m Goo 1525 @ Huntingdon 05/05/2022 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m7f171y Gd 1525/0554 @ Newbury 19/02/2023 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 2m69y GF 162 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Newbury 03/03/2023 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m4f118y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS3/0344 @ Wincanton 05/04/2023 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Plumpton 23/10/2023 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 108 · 1m7f195y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/10/2023 · OR 108 par23/103OR 1084 @ Ascot 20/12/2024 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 104 · 1m7f152y GS 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/12/2024 · OR 104 par5 @ Fakenham 14/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 95 · 2m3y Gd 163 · beat its mark14/02/2025 · OR 95 par14/025OR 95projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-02-14Fakenham52nd2nd0
2025-02-01Musselburgh4+1
2024-12-20Ascot417th16th+1
2023-10-23Plumpton36th4th+2
2023-04-05Wincanton41st0th+1
2023-03-03Newbury43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0119/0223/1014/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/01/20225th33/10%71%+0.71
19/03/20223rd16/583%82%-0.01
05/05/20221st5/696%100%+0.04
19/02/20234th7/491%0%-0.91
03/03/20233rd14/126%60%+0.34
05/04/20231st5/287%100%+0.13
23/10/20236th22/10%38%+0.38
20/12/202417th66/10%6%+0.06
14/02/20252nd25/10%89%+0.89