Jefe Triunfo
7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 95
Fontwell · Southern Cranes And Access Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 164y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Plumpton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Fontwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fontwell | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Plumpton | 3 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-11-10 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 10/11/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 06/04/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |