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6

Blue Siam

4yo Filly · 10-9 · OR 78

Fontwell · KEP Communications Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 29y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden across both codes (stays 1¾m on Flat). Hasn't kicked on from her third on handicap hurdle debut at Stratford (2m) in May, shaping like a non-stayer upped to 3¼m when fourth of 6 at Newton Abbot last time. Others still preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS28/0344 @ Wincanton 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f50y Gd 143 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Newton Abbot 13/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 143 · HIGHER CLASS13/0545 @ Stratford 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 2m70y Goo 153 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par5 @ Newton Abbot 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 82 · 2m167y Gd 156 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 par12/065OR 826 @ Bath 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 51 · 1m6f Fm 135 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 51 par5 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 51 · 1m6f44y Goo 123 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 51 par21/075OR 515 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 81 · 2m4f Gd 145 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 81 par5 @ Newton Abbot 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 81 · 3m2f105y Goo 145 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 81 par27/085OR 81projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-08-23Worcester57th7th0
2026-07-21Salisbury54th4th0
2026-07-15Bath63rd4th−1
2026-06-12Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-05-30Stratford53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0330/0521/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength7%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
12/04/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
13/05/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
30/05/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
12/06/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
15/07/20263rd28/10%50%+0.50
21/07/20264th9/153%0%-0.53
23/08/20267th40/10%50%+0.50
27/08/20264th18/15%40%+0.35