Lord Virginia
5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 93
Fontwell · KEP Communications Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 29y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Huntingdon | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Hereford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Taunton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Worcester | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 22/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |