Winston's Oath
4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 80
Fontwell · KEP Communications Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 29y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fontwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |