3
Ebony King
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 126
Gowran Park · Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 60y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 11th | −7 |
| 2025-08-22 | Kilbeggan | ? | −7 | ||
| 2025-08-02 | Galway | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |