4
El Cairos
6yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 143
Gowran Park · Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 60y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | 1 | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | −7 | ||
| 2025-05-01 | Punchestown | BHA130 | 2nd | 17th | −12 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 12/03/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 68% | -0.05 |