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Gaucher

7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 150

Gowran Park · Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 60y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

54%

Place Prob

48%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart hurdler who ran a fine race in last year's Galway Hurdle prior to resuming winning ways in Grade 3 at Tipperary, albeit fortunate on the day. Has shown equally smart form on the Flat this year, including when fourth in Group 3 at Leopardstown 3 weeks ago. Much respected back over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength21%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR 149 · 2m11y Goo 165 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 149 par31/071OR 1491 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 150 · 2m20y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 150 parBHA90 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 90 · 2m Std 140 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 90 par28/1190OR 90BHA90 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m4f Std 130 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 90 parBHA101 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 101 par27/02101OR 1012 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 106 · 1m2f42y Std 138 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 108 · 1m1f212y GF 131 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 108 par16/061OR 1081 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 108 · 1m4f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 108 · 1m4f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 108 par12/091OR 108projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Leopardstown14th4th+0
2026-08-06Leopardstown13rd3rd+0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot113th13th0
2026-04-03Newcastle22nd3rd−1
2026-02-27DundalkBHA1011st12th−9
2025-12-05DundalkBHA901st11th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/075/1216/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20255th28/10%78%+0.78
05/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
28/11/20254th2/189%75%-0.14
05/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
27/02/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
03/04/20262nd3/184%92%+0.08
16/06/202613th18/15%20%+0.15
06/08/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67
12/09/20264th22/10%67%+0.67