5
Mister Pessimistic
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 126
Gowran Park · Gowran Park Hurdle (Listed) · 2m 60y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA126 | 8th | 22th | −12 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 49/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -10.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |