2
Minella Hollow
6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 120
Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 60y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲6
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 12th | −7 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | ? | 4th | 12th | −7 |
| 2024-11-17 | Cheltenham | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/11/2024 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |