4
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7yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 125
Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 60y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA80 | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Naas | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength92%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 95% | +0.02 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 30/100 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |