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5

Witches Familiar

4yo Filly · 10-11

Gowran Park · BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) · 2m 60y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/6

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Zarak filly who has made a most promising start to her career, supplementing her Ballinrobe debut success in 11-runner novice at Galway (17f) in July, again showing encouraging speed given the stamina in her pedigree. Will go on improving and fancied to extend her winning sequence to 3.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Amiens 28/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f205y GS 12028/09C5C5 @ Le Mans 29/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f152y Sft 12029/10C5C8 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m13y Goo 14826/05C8C8 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m130y Gd 15427/07C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Galway?1st9th−7
2026-05-26Ballinrobe?1st9th−7
2025-10-29Le Mans?6th10th−4
2025-09-28Amiens?5th9th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0929/1026/0527/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20255th11/486%69%-0.16
29/10/20256th11/271%58%-0.13
26/05/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
27/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09