1
Born Braver
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 128
Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA133 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA126 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Punchestown | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Down Royal | BHA122 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | BHA122 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 17/11/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/11/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/12/2025 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 20/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 15/02/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |