3
Fad Eadrainn
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 124
Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | BHA123 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA124 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Navan | BHA127 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | 1 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA124 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 11/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/12/2025 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |