5
Jacovec Cavern
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 120
Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Wexford | BHA116 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA121 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA121 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA120 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA109 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gowran Park | BHA110 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 25/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 14/02/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 31% | -0.35 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |