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11

Lough Nigara

9yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 110

Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved last season, winning handicap hurdles at Punchestown and Thurles and also placed on 5 different occasions. However, he flat out refused to race at Downpatrick when last seen and must be considered an unreliable betting proposition as a result.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA92 @ Limerick 26/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 92 · 2m1f145y Yie 154 · below its mark26/12/2024 · OR 92 par26/1292OR 92BHA90 @ Wexford 17/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m1f Goo 158 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 90 parBHA88 @ Listowel 31/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 88 · 2m7f100y Goo 158 · below its mark31/05/2025 · OR 88 par31/0588OR 88BHA89 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 89 · 3m Sft 145 · below its mark04/11/2025 · OR 89 parBHA90 @ Fairyhouse 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 90 · 3m110y Hvy 146 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 90 par21/1190OR 90BHA93 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 93 · 3m2f Yie 152 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 93 parBHA93 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 93 · 2m6f Sft 150 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 93 par12/0193OR 93C8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 101 · 2m3f17y Sft 149 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 101 parBHA103 @ Thurles 05/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 103 · 2m6f198y Sft 159 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 103 par5/03103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA1100
2026-03-05ThurlesBHA1031st1st0
2026-02-04Punchestown?2nd2nd0
2026-01-12PunchestownBHA931st1st0
2026-01-01FairyhouseBHA933rd3rd0
2025-11-21FairyhouseBHA902nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/124/1112/015/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength46%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20244th7/163%67%+0.04
17/05/20257th3/184%54%-0.30
31/05/20253rd9/153%88%+0.36
04/11/20253rd4/179%83%+0.04
21/11/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
01/01/20263rd5/174%88%+0.14
12/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
04/02/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
05/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18