4
Mordor
6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 124
Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA124 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA94 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 71/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 95% | +0.03 |
| 11/10/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 28% | +0.23 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 19/08/2026 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |