6
My Trump Card
8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 119
Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Listowel | BHA119 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA113 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | BHA115 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA116 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA120 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA121 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 02/08/2026 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |