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9yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 105

Gowran Park · Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle · 3m 40y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 13-runner handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (25f) in September and proved better than ever when landing an 11-runner handicap at Roscommon 5 days ago by 1¼ lengths from Milan Forth. A 6 lb rise makes life harder, though, and steps back up in grade here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA93 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 93 · 2m6f120y Gd 161 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 93 par2/0793OR 93BHA96 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 96 · 3m1f121y Gd 152 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 96 · 2m4f85y Goo 148 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 96 par16/0796OR 96BHA100 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 100 · 2m6f111y Goo 156 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA99 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 99 · 2m7f100y Goo 167 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 99 par20/0899OR 99BHA95 @ Kilbeggan 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 95 · 3m200y Goo 149 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 95 parBHA97 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 2m6f111y Sft 149 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 97 par7/0997OR 97BHA99 @ Listowel 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 99 · 3m Goo 140 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 99 parBHA99 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 99 · 3m25y Goo 147 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 99 par28/0999OR 99projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28RoscommonBHA991st1st0
2026-09-23ListowelBHA994th4th0
2026-09-07GalwayBHA973rd3rd0
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA951st1st0
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA995th5th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10010th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/072/087/0928/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20262nd11/142%94%+0.52
12/07/202610th11/271%36%-0.35
16/07/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
02/08/202610th16/116%47%+0.31
20/08/20265th20/10%64%+0.64
04/09/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
07/09/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04
23/09/20264th22/10%77%+0.77
28/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18