3
Blood Destiny
7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 156
Gowran Park · PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲7
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.4 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA141 | 6th | 22th | −14 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA150 | 1st | 19th | −15 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA150 | 2nd | 20th | −15 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 29% | -0.64 |