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4

Emily Love

7yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 120

Gowran Park · PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Prolific novice hurdler who got off the mark at the second attempt over fences at Tramore in May, despite finding 2m barely enough of a test. Well held in the face of a stiff task at Listowel latest, though, and is up against it at the weights once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲6
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -6.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Perth 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 2m4f35y Gd 155 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 113 par8/064OR 113BHA113 @ Kilbeggan 16/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 113 · 2m2f200y Goo 161 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 113 parBHA125 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 125 · 2m4f85y Yie 155 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 125 par17/07125OR 1251 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 130 · 2m110y Gd 156 · below its mark29/07/2025 · OR 130 parC8 @ Killarney 21/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 130 · 2m6f180y Goo 157 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 130 par21/08C8OR 130C5 @ Far Hills 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 129 · 2m1f 160 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 129 parC0 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m7f130y Goo 16130/05C?C8 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 3m186y Goo 157C8 @ Listowel 23/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 121 · 2m3f Goo 161 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 121 par23/09C8OR 121projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Listowel?5th14th−7
2026-06-07Punchestown?3rd12th−7
2026-05-30Tramore?1st1st0
2026-05-09Killarney?0
2025-10-18Far Hills?1st6th−4
2025-08-21Killarney?4th13th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0629/0730/0523/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 4-4 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
16/06/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
17/07/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
29/07/20253rd13/266%67%+0.01
21/08/20254th11/486%0%-0.86
18/10/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
30/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
07/06/20263rd6/492%0%-0.92
23/09/20265th16/116%20%+0.04