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Fleur In The Park

7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 153

Gowran Park · PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

57%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took really well to chasing last season, producing a career-best when landing Grade 1 Novices' Chase at Fairyhouse (2½m, soft) in April. Confirmed that no fluke when second in another Grade 1 at Punchestown (25f, good) later that month and looks sure to give Blood Destiny plenty to think about.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Naas 23/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 137 · 2m4f Sft 154 · below its mark23/02/2025 · OR 137 par23/021OR 1371 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 133 · 2m4f Yie 157 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 133 par1 @ Punchestown 30/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 135 · 2m7f192y Yie 164 · below its mark30/04/2025 · OR 135 par30/041OR 135C0 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 166C0 @ Wexford 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 16627/10C?1 @ Punchestown 23/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m43y Sft 1581 @ Thurles 05/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 145 · 2m5f110y Sft 153 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 145 par5/031OR 1451 @ Fairyhouse 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 143 · 2m4f Yie 164 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 143 par1 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 153 · 3m213y Yie 164 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 153 par28/041OR 153projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-28Punchestown12nd3rd−1
2026-04-05Fairyhouse11st1st+0
2026-03-05Thurles15th6th−1
2025-11-23Punchestown12nd3rd−1
2025-10-27Wexford?1st1st0
2025-10-04Gowran Park?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/024/105/0328/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20254th7/593%25%-0.68
06/04/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
30/04/20253rd17/255%71%+0.16
04/10/20252nd9/488%90%+0.02
27/10/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
23/11/20252nd10/1195%75%-0.20
05/03/20265th7/282%20%-0.62
05/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
28/04/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45