Senecia
9yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 150
Gowran Park · PWC Danoli Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | 1 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | 1 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | +0 | ||
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Punchestown | 1 | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 16/11/2024 | 3rd | 200/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 30/07/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |