Bowensonfire
6yo Gelding · 10-13
Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | 1 | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/03/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 06/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |