3
D Art D Art
7yo Gelding · 10-13
Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 14.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA128 | 14th | 28th | −12 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | BHA130 | 9th | 23th | −12 |
| 2026-02-02 | Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-03 | Punchestown | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-03-13 | Cheltenham | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 15/12/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 13/03/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 22/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/04/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |