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4

Frankie John

6yo Gelding · 10-13

Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very useful hurdler who posted an excellent fourth in Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle at Aintree (3m) in April. Made a pleasing start over fences with success in maiden at Galway (2¼m, good to soft) in July. Open to progress, especially back over further.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 16626/09C8C8 @ Galway 26/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m5f100y Goo 1661 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m4f Hvy 15416/111C8 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m4f103y Goo 1661 @ Naas 09/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 129 · 2m4f Sft 164 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 129 par9/011OR 1291 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 129 · 2m6f53y Hvy 164 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 129 par1 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 133 · 3m149y Goo 162 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 133 par10/041OR 1331 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 138 · 2m7f190y Yie 164 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 138 parC0 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m2f54y Gd 16628/07C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Galway?1st1st0
2026-04-29Punchestown18th8th0
2026-04-10Aintree14th4th0
2026-02-02Leopardstown15th5th0
2026-01-09Naas15th5th0
2025-12-29Leopardstown?1st9th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0929/1210/0428/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20252nd8/1196%90%-0.06
26/10/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
16/11/20253rd5/174%67%-0.07
29/12/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
09/01/20265th28/10%56%+0.56
02/02/20265th18/15%43%+0.38
10/04/20264th25/10%73%+0.73
29/04/20268th20/10%46%+0.46
28/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10