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6

Kilbarry Saint

7yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 125

Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a belated first win over fences in maiden at Clonmel (2½m) in March and backed it up with solid placed efforts at Fairyhouse and Punchestown following month. Has gone well fresh so needs considering after a layoff.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Fairyhouse 22/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 128 · 2m5f173y Sft 149 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 128 par22/021OR 1281 @ Fairyhouse 20/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 131 · 2m4f Sft 157 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/04/2025 · OR 131 par1 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 128 · 2m4f171y Sft 144 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 128 par6/111OR 1281 @ Punchestown 23/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 128 · 2m43y Sft 151 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 128 par1 @ Cork 07/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 128 · 2m200y Sft 153 · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 128 par7/121OR 1281 @ Punchestown 18/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 120 · 2m4f23y Sft 149 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 120 parBHA125 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 125 · 2m4f63y Sft 161 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 125 par26/03125OR 1251 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 126 · 2m5f45y Yie 150 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 126 par1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 126 · 2m4f80y Yie 142 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 126 par29/041OR 126projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29Punchestown13rd3rd0
2026-04-04Fairyhouse12nd2nd0
2026-03-26ClonmelBHA1251st15th−12
2026-02-18Punchestown13rd3rd+0
2025-12-07Cork15th5th0
2025-11-23Punchestown14th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0223/1126/0329/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength54%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/02/20254th11/142%25%-0.17
20/04/20255th40/10%20%+0.20
06/11/20252nd15/261%80%+0.19
23/11/20254th16/116%25%+0.09
07/12/20255th40/10%43%+0.43
18/02/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
26/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
04/04/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
29/04/20263rd6/168%85%+0.16