1
Shadow Paddy
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 139
Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | BHA113 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/07/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.41 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |