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5

Vicar Street

7yo Gelding · 10-13

Gowran Park · Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (Grade 3) · 2m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced winning hurdler. Built on chasing debut promise with emphatic success in 9-runner novice at Galway (23f, good to soft) in July. That form has worked out well, and he's a big player for yard with excellent record in this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 01/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m2f Gd 1681/08C?C8 @ Roscommon 07/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m4f125y Gd 1587/07C81 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m110y Gd 16029/071C0 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 3m157y Goo 1666/06C?C0 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 2m6f111y Goo 16631/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Galway?1st1st0
2026-06-06Punchestown?3rd3rd0
2025-07-29Galway12nd2nd0
2025-07-07Roscommon?1st9th−7
2024-08-01Galway?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/087/0729/076/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20244th4/998%75%-0.23
07/07/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
29/07/20252nd7/282%83%+0.02
06/06/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
31/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09