Blue Mosque
6yo Mare · 11-3
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Captain Christy Rated Novice Chase · 3m
#3
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Punchestown | 1 | 1st | -7th | +7 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | BHA122 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-03-08 | Naas | BHA124 | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 18th | 10th | +7 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | 1 | 11th | 3rd | +7 |
| 2025-04-30 | Punchestown | BHA127 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 22/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 30/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 29/12/2025 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 01/02/2026 | 18th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 81% | +0.55 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |