1
Fou De Toi
5yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 127
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Captain Christy Rated Novice Chase · 3m
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA115 | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | +7 | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 88/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 77% | -0.15 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 65% | +0.07 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |