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Arcadian Emperor

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising individual who got off the mark in maiden hurdle at Clonmel (2½m) when last seen in April. That form has been franked since and rates a most interesting recruit to chasing after just a handful of runs.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f25y Yie 16827/12C?C8 @ Naas 25/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m2f150y Hvy 16625/01C8C8 @ Clonmel 26/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m3f64y Hvy 15826/02C8C8 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR - · 2m3f185y Yie 15814/04C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-14Clonmel?1st1st0
2026-02-26Clonmel?2nd2nd0
2026-01-25Naas?2nd2nd0
2025-12-27Leopardstown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1225/0126/0214/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20254th7/491%63%-0.28
25/01/20262nd2/189%93%+0.04
26/02/20262nd5/696%93%-0.02
14/04/20261st1/297%100%+0.03