5
Forty Coats
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Cheltenham | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-12 | Cheltenham | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-18 | Navan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-12-10 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 10/12/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 94% | +0.04 |
| 18/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 12/03/2025 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 74% | +0.74 |