7
I Started A Joke
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Limerick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 12/03/2025 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.30 |
| 06/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 94% | +0.04 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |