8
Lemmy Caution
5yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 56% | -0.39 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |