9
Leni's Law
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA106 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fairyhouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 02/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 19/03/2026 | 17th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |