12
Sir Allen
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · SIS Supporting Irish Racing Beginners Chase · 2m 4f
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA71 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-12-29 | Leopardstown | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Naas | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-10-17 | Curragh | BHA70 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 23/09/2024 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/10/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 17/10/2024 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 10/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 29/12/2024 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |